Well, the summer rush has come to an end. Much like the peak we saw in 2006, we may have just experienced another peak (I believe future trends will bear this out) in our 2009 home buying trend. Our market has been having meaningful month over month gains, especially in our monthly ABSORPTION RATE, but that has come to an end with July's numbers. Absorption rates for each category - Tampa Bay area, Pinellas County, and the Beaches - all decreased in July compared to June's rates. I believe this to be a seasonal decrease and not indicative of a steeper market decline.
What did continue to go down was our inventory - YEAH! When our inventory gets back to pre-runup levels - less than 20,000 units and closer to 15,000 units - we will see home prices stabilize. Unfortunately, we are still at 28,000+ units. at our current rate of sale, there will be no price stabilization until AT LEAST Summer 2010...more likely END of 2010. It's not the best news, but it is the light at the end of the tunnel.
The Beaches continue to be extremely soft, compared with Tampa Bay and Pinellas County as a whole.
MLS MONTHLY REPORT July ‘09
TAMPA BAY AREA (tri-county) Homes Condos Total Units
Total Units Available: 19,354 9,261 28615
Total Units Pending: 3,243 973 4,216
Total Units Sold: 2,274 662 2936
Absorption rate: 11.75% 7.15% 10.3%
Avg Days on Market 101 days 106 days 102 days
Months of Inventory 8.5 mons 14.0 mons 9.7 mons
Sold vs List Price % 94% 91% 93%
Sold vs Original List Price % 82% 80% 81%
PINELLAS COUNTY Homes Condos Total Units
Total Units Available: 7,039 5,599 12,638
Total Units Pending: 1029 457 1486
Total Units Sold: 733 354 1087
Absorption rate: 10.4% 6.32% 8.6%
Avg Days on Market 85 days 110 days 93 days
Months of Inventory 9.6 mons 15.8 mons 11.6 mons
Sold vs List Price % 93% 89% 92%
Sold vs Original List Price % 85% 79% 83%
N. BEACHES (476-478, 370-375) Homes Condos Total Units
Total Units Available: 599 1535 2,134
Total Units Pending: 52 99 151
Total Units Sold: 32 86 118
Absorption rate: 5.34% 5.6% 5.53%
Avg Days on Market 115 days 151 days 141 days
Months of Inventory 18.7 mons 17.8 mons 18.1 mons
Sold vs List Price % 88% 90% 89%
Sold vs Original List Price % 81% 77% 78%
Showing posts with label pinellas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pinellas. Show all posts
Monday, August 17, 2009
Monday, June 29, 2009
The May numbers are in and the most noticeable trend is our sinking inventory, which is 1 half of the supply demand equation. Inventory is hovering at the 31,000 unit mark, which is the lowest level in at least 2 years. Is the market stabilizing...yes. But like a train coming to a stop, it will take time.
Another notable number is the ABSORPTION RATE for Tampa Bay area homes...almost 10%. we haven't seen double digit absorption rates in about 18 months. In laymans terms, roughly 1 out of every 10 homes listed for sale actually sold in the month of May.
Beach properties are stabilizing, but the Days on Market is HORRENDOUS. Beach condo sellers can expect their average sale time to be 154 day...5 months! By pricing competitively and being open to buyer incentives, you can shave this time way down.
MLS MONTHLY REPORT May ‘09
TAMPA BAY AREA (tri-county) Homes Condos Total Units
Total Units Available: 20,722 10,078 30800
Total Units Pending: 3,240 1053 4,293
Total Units Sold: 2,019 576 2,595
Absorption rate: 9.75% 5.72% 8.43%
Avg Days on Market 105 days 117 days 107 days
Months of Inventory 10.3 mons 17.8 mons 11.9 mons
Sold vs List Price % 93% 90% 93%
Sold vs Original List Price % 82% 80% 82%
PINELLAS COUNTY Homes Condos Total Units
Total Units Available: 7,472 5,978 13,450
Total Units Pending: 995 543 1538
Total Units Sold: 641 322 963
Absorption rate: 8.58% 5.39% 7.16%
Avg Days on Market 103 days 126 days 111 days
Months of Inventory 11.7 mons 18.6 mons 14.0 mons
Sold vs List Price % 92% 89% 91%
Sold vs Original List Price % 80% 80% 80%
N. BEACHES (476-478, 370-375) Homes Condos Total Units
Total Units Available: 645 1702 2,347
Total Units Pending: 59 137 196
Total Units Sold: 37 90 127
Absorption rate: 5.74% 5.29% 5.41%
Avg Days on Market 134 days 154 days 148 days
Months of Inventory 17.4 mons 18.9 mons 18.5 mons
Sold vs List Price % 93% 89% 90%
Sold vs Original List Price % 79% 79% 79%
Another notable number is the ABSORPTION RATE for Tampa Bay area homes...almost 10%. we haven't seen double digit absorption rates in about 18 months. In laymans terms, roughly 1 out of every 10 homes listed for sale actually sold in the month of May.
Beach properties are stabilizing, but the Days on Market is HORRENDOUS. Beach condo sellers can expect their average sale time to be 154 day...5 months! By pricing competitively and being open to buyer incentives, you can shave this time way down.
MLS MONTHLY REPORT May ‘09
TAMPA BAY AREA (tri-county) Homes Condos Total Units
Total Units Available: 20,722 10,078 30800
Total Units Pending: 3,240 1053 4,293
Total Units Sold: 2,019 576 2,595
Absorption rate: 9.75% 5.72% 8.43%
Avg Days on Market 105 days 117 days 107 days
Months of Inventory 10.3 mons 17.8 mons 11.9 mons
Sold vs List Price % 93% 90% 93%
Sold vs Original List Price % 82% 80% 82%
PINELLAS COUNTY Homes Condos Total Units
Total Units Available: 7,472 5,978 13,450
Total Units Pending: 995 543 1538
Total Units Sold: 641 322 963
Absorption rate: 8.58% 5.39% 7.16%
Avg Days on Market 103 days 126 days 111 days
Months of Inventory 11.7 mons 18.6 mons 14.0 mons
Sold vs List Price % 92% 89% 91%
Sold vs Original List Price % 80% 80% 80%
N. BEACHES (476-478, 370-375) Homes Condos Total Units
Total Units Available: 645 1702 2,347
Total Units Pending: 59 137 196
Total Units Sold: 37 90 127
Absorption rate: 5.74% 5.29% 5.41%
Avg Days on Market 134 days 154 days 148 days
Months of Inventory 17.4 mons 18.9 mons 18.5 mons
Sold vs List Price % 93% 89% 90%
Sold vs Original List Price % 79% 79% 79%
Sunday, December 14, 2008
November was bleak, as expected. Overall home & condo sales rates were about a point lower than October’s sales rates. Pending home sales ticked up (as reported by several media outlets) but many of those don’t make it to closing the next month (or at all!). Pricing is still homeseller’s strongest sales tactic – distressed properties in Tampa Bay sold at an AVERAGE PRICE 23% LOWER than non-distressed properties, which is very stiff competition.
Below is a 5 year lookback at our inventory in Tampa Bay – November’s inventory dipped below 38,000 units for sale for the 1st time in AT LEAST 2 YEARS! Our current rate of supply decay from Nov ‘07 to Nov ’08 is 10%...at current rates, barring any major increase in buyers or inventory, it would take 10 YEARS to get back to healthy, sustainable levels, i.e. 12,000 – 14,000 units! I think the turnaround will be quicker, but no sooner than 2010 until we see that “healthier” market.
Expect December to be as slow as November. I am experiencing more showing calls and also taking clients out more often. I also expect a mental shift in homebuyers in the 1st quarter of 2009 as 1) confidence in a new administration 2) low mtg rates 3) low prices and 4) increased job stability encourage homeowners to explore our market.
TAMPA BAY AREA (tri-county) Homes Condos Total Units
Total Units Available: 26,040 11,446 37,486
Total Units Pending: 1,789 523 2,312
Total Units Sold: 1,406 394 1,800
Absorption rate: 5.40% 3.44% 4.80%
Avg Days on Market 97 days 106 days 99 days
Months of Inventory 18.5 mons 29.1 mons 20.8 mons
Sold vs List Price % 93% 92% 93%
Sold vs Original List Price % 83% 83% 83%
PINELLAS COUNTY Homes Condos Total Units
Total Units Available: 9,089 6,570 15,659
Total Units Pending: 576 270 846
Total Units Sold: 458 204 662
Absorption rate: 5.04% 3.11 % 4.23%
Avg Days on Market 96 days 120 days 103 days
Months of Inventory 19.8 mons 32.2 mons 23.7 mons
Sold vs List Price % 92% 91% 92%
Sold vs Original List Price % 84% 82% 83%
N. BEACHES (476-478, 370-375) Homes Condos Total Units
Total Units Available: 707 1800 2,507
Total Units Pending: 29 72 101
Total Units Sold: 27 48 75
Absorption rate: 3.82% 2.67% 2.99%
Avg Days on Market 91 days 120 days 110 days
Months of Inventory 26.2 mons 37.5 mons 33.4 mons
Sold vs List Price % 92% 90% 91%
Sold vs Original List Price % 83% 82% 83%
Below is a 5 year lookback at our inventory in Tampa Bay – November’s inventory dipped below 38,000 units for sale for the 1st time in AT LEAST 2 YEARS! Our current rate of supply decay from Nov ‘07 to Nov ’08 is 10%...at current rates, barring any major increase in buyers or inventory, it would take 10 YEARS to get back to healthy, sustainable levels, i.e. 12,000 – 14,000 units! I think the turnaround will be quicker, but no sooner than 2010 until we see that “healthier” market.
Expect December to be as slow as November. I am experiencing more showing calls and also taking clients out more often. I also expect a mental shift in homebuyers in the 1st quarter of 2009 as 1) confidence in a new administration 2) low mtg rates 3) low prices and 4) increased job stability encourage homeowners to explore our market.
TAMPA BAY AREA (tri-county) Homes Condos Total Units
Total Units Available: 26,040 11,446 37,486
Total Units Pending: 1,789 523 2,312
Total Units Sold: 1,406 394 1,800
Absorption rate: 5.40% 3.44% 4.80%
Avg Days on Market 97 days 106 days 99 days
Months of Inventory 18.5 mons 29.1 mons 20.8 mons
Sold vs List Price % 93% 92% 93%
Sold vs Original List Price % 83% 83% 83%
PINELLAS COUNTY Homes Condos Total Units
Total Units Available: 9,089 6,570 15,659
Total Units Pending: 576 270 846
Total Units Sold: 458 204 662
Absorption rate: 5.04% 3.11 % 4.23%
Avg Days on Market 96 days 120 days 103 days
Months of Inventory 19.8 mons 32.2 mons 23.7 mons
Sold vs List Price % 92% 91% 92%
Sold vs Original List Price % 84% 82% 83%
N. BEACHES (476-478, 370-375) Homes Condos Total Units
Total Units Available: 707 1800 2,507
Total Units Pending: 29 72 101
Total Units Sold: 27 48 75
Absorption rate: 3.82% 2.67% 2.99%
Avg Days on Market 91 days 120 days 110 days
Months of Inventory 26.2 mons 37.5 mons 33.4 mons
Sold vs List Price % 92% 90% 91%
Sold vs Original List Price % 83% 82% 83%
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