January home sale stats (compiled from our Tampa Bay MLS) are attached to this email and, as expected, the numbers are somewhat sobering. However, I expect the next 3 months to be very fruitful for buyers and sellers alike. NOW is the time to ensure your property is priced correctly for the current market. If you haven’t noticed it already, Buyers are out there grabbing flyers and calling off signs.

The brightest spot in the latest numbers is that our available inventory continues to decline, but not as fast as we would like to see. Throughout the tri-county area, just 4.59% of all available properties sold, leaving us with almost 2 years of inventory at current levels. I expect this number to shrink as our buying season progresses. HOWEVER…properties are currently selling at just 72% - 80% of their ORIGINAL LIST PRICE, which means we are over-pricing many of our properties from the outset. The beach continues to be a weaker segment of the home sale market, but that is expected to change as we experience an influx of visitors.

If you have any questions about the info provided, pls call, email, or text me. Below are 2 graphs depicting tri-county property sales (home & condo):

Despite the tumultuous end of the year, the real estate market in the Bay area finished slightly stronger than anticipated. Home sales ticked up and supply decreased slightly, which is the right formula for stabilization. Condos are still sluggish, with relatively undiminished supply and flat demand.

What is amazing is that Beach homes through out Pinellas County that sold in December closed at 70% of their original list price. That’s a full 1/3 discount. Other property types in and around Pinellas that sold in December averaged 82% - 85% of their original listing prices.

Distressed properties are here to stay and make up appr 1/3 of our sales. 2009 is a peak year for “Pay-Option ARMs” to reset and will cause a secondary wave of foreclosures as owners’ payments double, triple, and quadruple when the loans “re-cast” themselves.

If you absolutely need to sell, do yourself a favor and set your price AGGRESSIVELY. No matter how nice your property is, it is hard to compete with properties being sold at 10% - 25% discounts unless you are VALUE-priced. Below is a graph to showing the AVG PRICE of available vs sold homes in Tampa Bay from OCT 07 – DEC 08…on average, the SOLD PRICE has decreased appr. $5700 PER MONTH!!! Essentially, you are paying “the market” $6000 a month to sell your property.

November was bleak, as expected. Overall home & condo sales rates were about a point lower than October’s sales rates. Pending home sales ticked up (as reported by several media outlets) but many of those don’t make it to closing the next month (or at all!). Pricing is still homeseller’s strongest sales tactic – distressed properties in Tampa Bay sold at an AVERAGE PRICE 23% LOWER than non-distressed properties, which is very stiff competition.

Below is a 5 year lookback at our inventory in Tampa Bay – November’s inventory dipped below 38,000 units for sale for the 1st time in AT LEAST 2 YEARS! Our current rate of supply decay from Nov ‘07 to Nov ’08 is 10%...at current rates, barring any major increase in buyers or inventory, it would take 10 YEARS to get back to healthy, sustainable levels, i.e. 12,000 – 14,000 units! I think the turnaround will be quicker, but no sooner than 2010 until we see that “healthier” market.

Expect December to be as slow as November. I am experiencing more showing calls and also taking clients out more often. I also expect a mental shift in homebuyers in the 1st quarter of 2009 as 1) confidence in a new administration 2) low mtg rates 3) low prices and 4) increased job stability encourage homeowners to explore our market.


TAMPA BAY AREA (tri-county) Homes Condos Total Units

Total Units Available: 26,040 11,446 37,486

Total Units Pending: 1,789 523 2,312

Total Units Sold: 1,406 394 1,800

Absorption rate: 5.40% 3.44% 4.80%

Avg Days on Market 97 days 106 days 99 days

Months of Inventory 18.5 mons 29.1 mons 20.8 mons

Sold vs List Price % 93% 92% 93%

Sold vs Original List Price % 83% 83% 83%


PINELLAS COUNTY Homes Condos Total Units

Total Units Available: 9,089 6,570 15,659

Total Units Pending: 576 270 846

Total Units Sold: 458 204 662

Absorption rate: 5.04% 3.11 % 4.23%

Avg Days on Market 96 days 120 days 103 days

Months of Inventory 19.8 mons 32.2 mons 23.7 mons

Sold vs List Price % 92% 91% 92%

Sold vs Original List Price % 84% 82% 83%


N. BEACHES (476-478, 370-375) Homes Condos Total Units

Total Units Available: 707 1800 2,507

Total Units Pending: 29 72 101

Total Units Sold: 27 48 75

Absorption rate: 3.82% 2.67% 2.99%

Avg Days on Market 91 days 120 days 110 days

Months of Inventory 26.2 mons 37.5 mons 33.4 mons

Sold vs List Price % 92% 90% 91%

Sold vs Original List Price % 83% 82% 83%

Real estate continues to take a hit in the Tampa Bay area as we grapple with 3 times the normal amount of inventory and only 6 out of 100 available properties selling in the Tampa metro area.

The beaches, spurred by investors and "flippers", are still in sticker shock as only 3 out 100 available properties sold in October.

The global credit crises may be to blame for the lower than anticipated numbers, but in the end we are still in a supply vs. demand correction. Condos are doing only half as well are SFH, but both types of homeowners are seeing sales prices at appr 80% - 85% of the original sales price...


MLS MONTHLY REPORT October ‘08


TAMPA BAY AREA (tri-county) Homes Condos Total Units

Total Units Available: 26,431 11,677 38,108

Total Units Pending: 2,074 534 2,608

Total Units Sold: 1,671 446 2,117

Absorption rate: 6.32% 3.82% 5.56%

Avg Days on Market 95 days 107 days 97 days

Months of Inventory 15.8 mons 26.2 mons 18.0 mons

Sold vs List Price % 93% 90% 93%

Sold vs Original List Price % 84% 82% 84%


PINELLAS COUNTY Homes Condos Total Units

Total Units Available: 9,253 6,672 15,925

Total Units Pending: 627 239 866

Total Units Sold: 547 227 774

Absorption rate: 5.91% 3.40 % 4.86%

Avg Days on Market 88 days 110 days 95 days

Months of Inventory 16.9 mons 29.4 mons 20.6 mons

Sold vs List Price % 92% 89% 91%

Sold vs Original List Price % 85% 81% 84%


N. BEACHES (476-478, 370-375) Homes Condos Total Units

Total Units Available: 700 1785 2,485

Total Units Pending: 26 57 83

Total Units Sold: 20 48 68

Absorption rate: 2.86% 2.69% 2.74%

Avg Days on Market 104 days 125 days 118 days

Months of Inventory 35.0 mons 37.2 mons 29.9 mons

Sold vs List Price % 90% 87% 88%

Sold vs Original List Price % 83% 79% 80%