This is the day we’ve all been waiting for…there is incredibly positive real estate sales news to report.

● The number of Realtor-assisted sales pending for single-family homes in Lee County was 1,088 on Feb. 14, up 33 percent from 821 a month earlier.

● The Realtor® Association of Greater Fort Myers and the Beach (Lee County) had an 85.4 percent upswing in pending single family home sales in the last 10 weeks. The number of months it takes to sell all residential properties has dropped to 12 months from a high of 22.98 months in December 2007.

● In Martin County, there were 182 pending sales on January 1. Today, there are 345 pending sales, representing an increase of 90 percent.

● Pinellas County reported 600 single family units under contract in February, up 23 percent from 489 a month earlier.

● Marco Island (Collier County) reports pending sales numbers on March 1, 2008 at 135 while a year ago (March 1, 2007) this number was 104. Their pending sales on January 1, 2008 were 77 and in March 1, 2008, pending home sales were 135, up 75 percent.

● The Realtor® Association of Greater Ft Lauderdale (Broward County) has a forecast of pending sales that is quite impressive. Their single family pending sales (which includes condos and townhomes) totaled 529 in January but their pending inventory forecast for the month of February is 871. That is an increase of 65 percent.

● Palm Beach County has seen a drastic increase in single family homes sold between January and March this year. Between January 14 and February 14, 2008, 672 homes were sold. Between February 15 and March 10, 2008, 827 homes sold for an increase of nearly 30 percent month to month.

● The Venice Area Board of Realtors® (Sarasota County) reported 110 pending sales in February 2008 compared to 85 in January 2008. This is an increase of 29 percent.

● Naples Area Board of Realtors® (Collier County) had 513 pending sales in February 2008 compared to 413 pending sales in January 2008, an increase of 24 percent. Also, the pending sales for February 2008 are 10 percent higher than pending sales in February 2007 (464).

● The Orlando Regional Realtor® Association report s an increase in pending sales in both Orange and Seminole Counties. In Orange County, pending home sales increased by 29 percent from February to March and in Seminole County, pending home sales went up from 331 to 404, a 22 percent increase.

● The Sarasota Association of Realtors® MLS (Sarasota County) reported 654 sales pending (single-family and condo) in February 2008, an increase of 27 percent over the 516 sales reported pending in January 2008. In addition, Sarasota had 418 closed sales in February 2008, up 28 percent from the 327 closed sales in January 2008.

It’s a Great Time To Buy Florida Real Estate
http://media.floridarealtors.org/GreatTimeToBuy

From Mike Mayo, Communications Director, Pinellas Realtor Org:


Today was a significant day in the property tax arena - the Florida Tax and Budget Reform Commission met to consider numerous property tax reform measures.

The highlight of the day was the passage of CP 002 by McKay and many others. This proposal does NOT include a mandatory services tax. FAR and our coalition successfully removed the services tax provision several weeks ago.The proposal now does away with the $9.5 billion Required Local Effort (RLE) that School Boards raise in property taxes at the direction of the Legislature, starting in 2011. It requires the Legislature to fill the "hole" created with an increase of up to 1-cent statewide sales tax (currently at 6%), repeal of sales tax exemptions (primarily on goods), money generated from a recovering economy, budget reductions, and other revenues identified or created by the Legislature.The commission voted 21-4 in favor of the measure and this will now appear on the November ballot. This proposal has two minor technical stops left before final passage, but significant debate is over. CP 002 must then be approved by 60 percent of voters. Commissioner and 2007 FAR President Nancy Riley voted in favor of CP 002.

This proposal will reduce property taxes by an average of 25 percent for ALL property types. Those actual savings will vary depending on which city and county the property is located. The proposal also includes a 5 percent assessment cap on non-homestead property – a reduction from the 10 percent approved in Amendment 1 this January.While the property tax reductions and lower non-homestead assessment cap are proposals FAR has supported, some concern remains that the Legislature may have to consider taxing services or other tax increases to make up the very large amount of money the RLE represents. There were some business groups that testified today pointing at the uncertainty of what would ultimately be subject to sales tax in the future.

Another proposal considered today was CP 021 by Commissioner Carlos Lacasa that provides, among other things, an eventual 25 percent minimum exemption for all property owners, in addition to the $50K exemption for homestead property. FAR testified in favor of the percentage exemption in order to allow recent- and first-time homebuyers to benefit from property tax savings immediately. This proposal was temporarily postponed so that some differences can be worked through but the Commission plans on revisiting this proposal in the near future. FAR will advocate the percentage exemption be included in this and other proposals that are moving through the process.

Finally, the Commission advanced a statutory recommendation to the Legislature, SP 013 by Commissioner Barney Barnett, that urges passage of legislation changing the presumption of correctness the property appraiser currently enjoys during Value Adjustment Board hearings to “the preponderance of evidence.” FAR supports this change, and testified today that a similar constitutional proposal, CP 042, be placed on the November ballot if the Legislature fails to act on the TBRC recommendation.

I received the following comment this morning on my blog. To Anonymous, I EMPATHIZE with you. While I did consider going to law school and even took my LSAT entry test, I am by no means a legal "eagle" nor does the State of Florida Dept of Business & Professional Reg. allow me to dispense legal advice. What I can do is forward your email to some people who have been very helpful to me in the past. I make no promises, but maybe we can get some attention to your plight and shine a light on what is really going on. Hang in there. FWIW, I am familiar with this community off of East Bay.

Below is the post I received:

Anonymous said...

To whom it may concern, Can it get any worse than this.

We appreciate your review and empathy towards our situation, as detailed below.

Over the past two years, more than 70 home owners were scammed into buying into a property that is currently, ultimately valueless. The developer in charge has filed for bankruptcy, and owners have little cause for relief. Let me tell you our story, in brief:

• In 2005, PUIG Development Company purchased several apartment buildings with the intent of converting them to condominium units for resell.

• One in particular – now named Venetia Country Club – is in extremely bad shape, and is the topic of this letter.

 First and foremost, the entire property and all of the buildings on the property have no certificates of occupancy, and owners are living there unlawfully. PUIG initially filed for contract/renovation permits but then fired the licensed contractors and had unskilled and unsupervised laborers do complicated electrical and plumbing work.

 The City of Largo knew the building was not being brought up to code, but still allowed PUIG to continue working and selling units, with the developer’s promises to correct the problems. Even after over a year of shirking responsibility and more than $20,000 in accrued fines, the city still continued to allow PUIG to work and sell.

 The City has now levied more than $95,000 in fines against the condo association, which will be ultimately turned over to the owners of condo in the next month. In addition, since PUIG filed for bankruptcy, the city has made it each individual unit owner’s responsibility to bring his/her unit up to compliance – a feat which could cost each owner several thousand dollars.

 If the city cannot get people to comply with a lengthy and expensive inspection and correction process, they have threatened to kick people out on the streets. In fact, owners in one building were actually removed from their units for a period of time.

 Also, many contractors and businesses have large claims against unpaid bills that PUIG has gathered, which will become the responsibility of the board at turnover.

 Repeated requests for relief and review to the Florida department of Business Regulation have been denied since PUIG is in bankruptcy. • Your first question might be, “Why weren’t the owners more careful when buying?”

 PUIG provided fraudulent documentation to each owner, including:

• What many claim to be fraudulent termite inspections in the condo documents (an investigation is ongoing), which has now resulted in the need to tent and repair multiple buildings.

• Inspector reports in the condo. docs which highlighted satisfactory engineer reports. Once they had that, then they did undocumented work on the buildings and did not alert purchasers that the reports were invalid.

• A letter from the City stating that Certificates of Occupancy were not needed unless major renovations were done. Most owners did not realize that the work done invalidated the details in that letter. In fact, the city is now claiming that even with no work done in an individual unit, that letter is no longer valid.

• In the short term, owners have banned together to beg PUIG to assist with paying for basic bills, such as the Utilities and general maintenance to prevent homes from completely falling apart. They have refused to repair the laundry facility and have – some think intentionally - destroyed the pool. Yet, recent monthly budget filings (under the bankruptcy court), still show payments to employees who are supposed to be working on Venetia’s behalf. The owners have not seen, or been able to reach via phone, an employee in quite some time.

• Venetia owners cannot sell their units, and many will be unable to afford the massive costs of special assessments and increases in monthly dues, created by poor development and hidden under fraudulent activity. Although several owners got together to collect money for an attorney, that process could be lengthy and may not lead to any positive outcome.

• Help is hard to find, since help requires money, and with a developer in bankruptcy, money is in short order. The bankruptcy proceedings and depositions focus on shifting and structuring assets, and other such legal-ease, and do not even touch on the fear and concern that the owners of this complex are facing.

If you can, please considering helping us. The Owners of this complex purchased in good faith, only to find our homes are valueless and falling apart around us. Many owners are low to mid income earners, some are elderly and others are pregnant mothers. Most have invested their entire savings into a dream that is now going to be defunct. While this country was founded on the principal of “caveat emptor”, it is also known for its giving spirit towards people in times of need. We are in great need, and any resources that you could assist us with would be greatly valued.

I'm going to step away from real estate and discuss a topic that has NOTHING to do with selling homes or working with buyers or short sales or where our market is going. It has everything to do with safety and awareness - if just one person is helped by this article, then I have done my job and earned a peaceful night's rest.

If you live in Florida, you may not know that the last 2 weeks of February and most of March are the most likely months in which we will experience TORNADOES. I was 1 class short of earning a minor in "Weatherology" (as my wife likes to call it) so let me explain...

As spring approaches, we begin to experience warmer, moister weather. The cold arctic blasts don't arrive as quickly and many die before they reach this far south. Howver, these High pressure systems (dense cold air) sometime drive south like a wedge over the Appalachians and across Florida. When this happens, that wedges moves in underneath the warmer, moist Spring air, driving it upward...the air becomes unstable and !voila! you get very violent storms.

Tornadoes are unpredictable and cause localized damage that may be spread over many miles.

So what can you do?

1) Be vigilant. Tornadoes may be unpredicatable, but the ingredients that cause them are essentially the same. Anytime a cold High pressure system is forecast to sweep through your area, stay alert. Listen for Tornado Watches and plan accordingly. Tornadoes are likely when there is a clearly delineated line of Severe Thunderstorms.

2) If you're at home, have a plan. Where will you go if there is a Warning for your area? Interior rooms are the best - if you don't have one, pick an area with minimal windows.

3) Look for the signs. You may not be near a tv or radio, but it doesn't mean you won't see one coming. In my experience, anytime the sky turns a weird shade of gray with a greenish tint, be careful. Airborne debris such as leaves are also a good indication of updrafts and potentially dangerous weather. If the wind all of a sudden picks up, stay on your toes. And if you hear a train when you don't live anywhere near tracks, seek cover immediately.

If your area or home is impacted by a tornado, most likely you will be a first responder. Tornadoes typically leave much debris in roads and nails, lumber, and downed trees make it almost impossible for emergency vehicles to respond immediately.

While it's easy for me to type "Don't Panic", most of us will. And you know what? It's ok. You have insurance for your house and furniture can be replaced. People cannot be replaced and that's why you need to be aware and have a plan.

Now go enjoy that Spring weather ;-)

Wow, what a difference a year makes. No, not a calendar year but an actual different year! 2007 vs. 2008. ’07 exited with a sleepy sigh as realtors around our area kepting checking their cell phones to ensure they were actually on. Mortgage brokers around the country took a holiday sabbatical and sellers received coal in their stockings.

But look out in ’08! Our office motto is “From Good to Great in ‘08” and so far, we are doing great. Why, you may so inquisitively ask? Personally, I have wrapped up deals and have made 3 offers in 2 days! My buyers are keeping me busy and my sellers are thanking me for bringing them offers!

But truthfully, it’s because of the blood and sweat from ’07 – the constant price reductions, the commitment to advertising, the endless Open Houses, etc.

So why are we seeing this tremendous upswing in activity? Here are a couple of reasons:

First, interest rates are fast approaching 5.0% - If one has excellent
credit, they can get sub-5% loans. They are the lowest in 4 years.

Also, Amendment 1 was passed on Tuesday. Essentially, it doubles the
homestead exemption and also allows homestead "portability" meaning
buyers who have a current homestead WILL NOT have their new property
re-assessed at full purchase price when they purchase, thereby allowing lower tax values.

Additionally, new home starts are at a 16 year low. The former Chairman
of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, has pegged our recovery at when the existing inventory of new homes begins to decrease and ultimately hits a historical low. It makes sense that less “NEW” inventory will buoy “EXISTING” inventory prices.

Finally, Moody's Economy.com has pegged Tampa Bay as the #1 area to
experience a v-shaped recovery. Read the article at
http://www.sptimes.com/2007/07/25/Business/No_1_spot_to_buy_a_ho.shtml

Just some things to consider. Buyers, now is the time to make that move. REMEMBER, BY THE TIME YOU START READING POSITIVE ARTICLES IN THE PAPER AND ON THE NEWS, THE RECOVERY WIL HAVE ALREADY BEGUN AND YOU WILL HAVE MISSED THE BOTTOM!

Get out there, find the beach home you have always wanted, and make the seller an offer they can’t refuse (sans the horse’s head). Rates are good, sellers are much more flexible, and inventory is relatively high – a triple treat for you!

Best of luck!

California always was a little eclectic, but they have cornered the market on firsts - first in the nation with the most fuel-efficient cars, first in the nation with 2 Hollywood-actors-turned-Governors, and now first in the nation to have a homeowner sue their realtor because their home has lost value in the nationwide real estate downturn.

Yep, you heard right - a husband and wife are suing their realtor over the $1.2M San Diego home they purchase last year. They claim the realtor did not disclose to them that homes in the neighborhood were selling for less money.

Hmmm...at first glance, you may be agreeing with their suit. I was intrigued to say the least. After watching the story and the interview on the MSNBC.com, my lasting impression of the suit was laughable. I suddenly remembered George Bush's rallying cry for tort reform in '04 and wished he had follow through.

Obviously, my career as a realtor means I have a vested interest in the outcome of this case. But where has personal responsibility gone?? Did not the Buyers have an obligation to do their Due Diligence with the purchase. My Latin is rusty, but "Caveat Emptor" comes to mind - "Let the Buyer beware."

Unless the Realtor intentionally hid something from the buyers, there can be no fraud. The buyers, of their own free will, sat at the closing table and signed documents purchasing the home at $1.2M. Ignorance must be bliss...

Don't go by what I say...you be the judge...and let me know if I'm crazy!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/22838905#22838905

WOW...what a week, huh?

Who thought the Fed would have an emergency meeting?

Who thought the Fed would cut the rates 3/4 of a point, which is the LARGEST CUT IN 27 YEARS?

Who thought the housing market would begin to bounce back so soon?

Did I just say that? I DID!!!

Now, let me preface that comment that I am referencing my tiny corner of the Tampa Bay Real Estate market. I have seen a tremendous increase in buyer activity, which has led me to ink 3 contracts w/i the last 14 days! My sellers are happy, my buyers are looking...all is getting right in that sector.

Let's put it in perspective - don't go planting that sign in your yard and expecting Buyers to beat a path to the closing table. I have insisted that my Sellers price their properties correctly so that when Buyers do present themselves, the properties are positioned to solicit an offer. I can advertise a home in every major media publication in the 48 states, but if it's not priced where a Buyer sees value compared to the myriad properties out there, it's a dead listing.

I can't tell you the number of listings i have walked away from. Since I make a monetary investment in every home I list, I actually make money when I walk away from over-priced listings.

The Tampa Bay area is experiencing about a 5.3% absorption rate - simply put, only 1 of every 20 homes on the market at any given time are being sold. The North County beaches are experiencing about 3.35% - or 1 out of every 30 properties!!!

So I have 2 questions:

1) Are you one of the 19 (or 29) listings just sitting there?
2) What are you willing to do to become that 1 home that sells?

Answer those questions and you will be a successful seller.

Sorry I haven't posted on time...I have been inundated with Buyers, Sellers, writing contracts, and selling properties!

Coldwell Banker has a unique program called TrendGraphix that culls sales date from our MLS systems. That data is ordered and release to Coldwell Banker realtors on or about the 10th of each month for the preceding month.

After reviewing the December sales data, we are definitely on an upswing. In fact, we experienced a contracting supply of properties for sale AND and an increase in existing sales. That indicates a stabilization in our marketplace.

Obviously, 1 month does not a trend make - but maybe there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

In other news, here is one of my new listings:

14130 Rosemary Ln #6215

Largo, FL 33774

LAKEVIEW BEAUTIFUL! Welcome to Lakeview Largo, Largo’s premier 55+ community. This warm and inviting **Completely Remodeled** gorgeous 2/2 condo offers: Tiled floors throughout, new custom kitchen with newer appliances, new remodeled Bathrooms, newer A/C (2002), all new thermal insulated windows (2000), sunroom (not incl in sf), ceiling fans in every room, plantation shutters in Master, filtered water, lots of storage, and so much more! Enjoy a beautiful view of the peaceful lake and community pool from your sunroom, Master Bedroom, Living Room & Kitchen! When you’ve seen the rest, come and see the best and you will fall in love!

Visit my listing at:

http://richcornelius.point2agent.com/Listing/ViewListingDetails.aspx?ListingID=1462042

Good bye 2007 - Hello 2008

Saying goodbye to our 2007 real estate woes is an easy task. Making 2008 a better year will be slightly harder. Here are a few ways you can help yourself over the course of next year:

1. Refinance your home - Rates are extraordinarily low right now - a 2 year low to be exact. Why not take advantage of a sub-6% 30 year fixed, expecially if you have had the loan for 5+ years? A lower interest rate, lower payment, and the security of borrowing at such an inexpensive rate are great reasons to refi this year.
2. Home Equity loans - Yes, you can use your home's equity (if you are fortunate enought to have some). The caveat is don't use it to buy that above-ground pool you've always wanted, the 2009 car that's new on the lot, or tickets to the SuperBowl. As a general rule-of-thumb, if borrowed money doesn't offer more value to your home after you have spent it, then don't do it. That does not include sickness, job loss, college funds, etc.
3. Prioritize Repairs - nothing says "DANGER" to a buyer like a leaky roof, peeling paint, or holes in walls. Start a home improvement project list and make it your mission to get your home in tip-top shape.
4. Energy Efficiency - call the power co. and have them do a free energy audit. If you need insulation, they give you a credit. Will save you money immediately.
5. Shop around for home insurance - with the departure of many of the large home insurers, the gap has been filled by smaller upstarts with strong financials. Call your insurance agent and ask that they review your policy. You might be able to save a few shekels very easily with no loss of coverage.

A Home for the Holidays 30-year Fixed Rate Loans Available

If your holiday shopping includes searching for a new home, Pinellas County Housing Finance Authority is offering low 6.1 percent fixed-rate, 30-year mortgages for residents looking to purchase a home in Pinellas, Pasco or Polk counties.

Save Our Homes challenged in Court...

Very interesting, especially in light of the new Amendment coming up for vote in Jan. I especially like the part about the tax inequities widening to 400+% in 2026 between Homesteaded property and Non-Honesteaded property.

Sorry I can't post the text (copyrighted) but the link is below:

http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/n1-121707.cfm

Sellers, the bleeding continued through November and we broke a few multi-year records. If you have to sell, PRICE IT RIGHT! Don't price it like your neighbor, who sold a year ago. Heck, even 6 months ago is too recent. Make buyers WANT to write an offer.

If you are upside-down in the property financially, there are avenues of assistance. You need to contact a Realtor immediately - please don't only listen to your lender. They are in tough times and every dollar they can get out of you helps them, not you.

Buyers, what in the heck are you waiting for. My clients closed on Tuesday with a 5.5% 30 year fixed rate. Granted they have sterling credit, but it was a 97% loan! Looking back over the history of interests rates, it's like free money at sub-6% rates. High inventory and motivated sellers are a no-brainer for moving up, moving down, or moving to the water, or moving to a golf course, or mov...you get the picture.

By the time you start hearing good news in the newspapers, it will be too late. Call or email me!

When discussing property taxes and their effect on the Florida real estate market, I am beginning to hear a recurring theme that is rooted in a common misconception - with the declining real estate market, property taxes will go DOWN.

To be perfectly honest, I thought the above was true - until I decided to delve deeper to see what was going to happen to my family's tax bill.

Remember the old saying "The Devil is in the details"? Well, let me introduce you to a little devil called the Recapture Rule! (I swear I didn't make this up).

Ok, stay with me. The local municipalities calculate your property's worth 3 ways:

1. Just/Market Value - a market value assigned by the taxing authority



2. Assessed Value - the value of the property assigned for tax value (usually less than Just/Market Value)



3. Taxable Assessed Value - after exemptions, the amount you, the owner, are taxed on.

For most homeowners, their Just/Market Value will be higher than their Assessed Value. If they have Homestead, then the max their Assessed Value can increase on a yearly basis is 3% (or the CPI).

So let's say your Just/Market Value is $200,000 and your Assessed Value is $150,000. Next August when you receive your TRIM notice, you will see a decrease in your tax bill because your Just/Martket Value will be less than $200,000, right? WRONG. Please read the snippet below that is taken directly from the Pinellas County Property Appraiser website, http://www.pcpao.org/:

Details, meet Devil. Devil, meet Details.

Keep on keeping on!

Cut Property Taxes Now!
www.CutPropertyTaxesNow.com
1.35% property Tax Cap –

1) 25-40% tax cut for Florida taxpayers;

2) applies to homesteaders/non-homesteaders;

3) Preserves Save Our Homes cap,

4) Applies to Taxable Value,

5) Allows school Funding to be preserved;

6) forces local governments to cut their budgets down to size. ……we need you to gather signatures!

¨ Coalition Grows – Floridians for Property Tax Reform add their support and volunteer network to get 1.35% plan on ballot! (http://www.saveourhomesforever.com/)
¨ Bradenton Herald offers supportive comments for 1.35% plan!
¨ Anna Maria city Commissioner endorses 1.35% plan!
¨ We need you to collect signatures for our 1.35% petition and donate at www.CutPropertyTaxesNow.com

Below is a letter of endorsement and an opinion piece in the Bradenton Herald supporting our 1.35% plan. Will you join our campaign?

In Today's Bradenton Herald (12/2/07) (letter to the editor)

Help pass 1.35% cap

I read with interest and hope about a ballot initiative supported by House Speaker Marco Rubio that calls for a flat 1.35 percent cap on all property taxes. The ballot proposal is sponsored by the coalition Cut Property Taxes Now and you can read more about their proposal at their Web site www.cutpropertytaxesnow.com.

This is a grassroots initiative and they need more than 600,000 verified voter signatures by the end of January for it to be placed on the ballot. What particularly caught my attention was the acknowledgement by Rubio that we (the people) need to rein in government spending. Our Legislature, local representatives and Gov. Crist have clearly demonstrated a lack of will and competence to address the citizens' concerns about spending and taxes; therefore, we, the people, need to take action. I strongly urge all concerned citizens to complete the petition form and notify your friends and family about this important ballot initiative. Let's show Tallahassee we, the people, can make a difference.

Dale Woodland,

Anna Maria city commissioner

City of Anna Maria

Tax plans aplenty (12/2/07, Bradenton Herald)

Finding fairest of them all

Just in the past few weeks the war against property taxes has expanded across several more fronts - each one more responsible than the Legislature's vain effort at reform during October's special session.

One proposal, a citizens petition, restricts property taxes to 1.35 percent of a parcel's taxable value. The tax bill on a piece of property valued at $100,000, with no exemptions, would be $1,350, amounting to a 26 percent reduction on average. The plan, which retains Save Our Homes and the homestead exemption, cuts property taxes by $8 billion statewide.

A new statewide coalition called Cut Property Taxes Now is sponsoring the measure, which could land on next November's ballot.

Another proposal, from a powerful statewide panel, seeks to repeal many of the state's sales-tax exemptions and exclusions and use that money, estimated at $9 billion annually, to replace local property taxes that fund public schools. The savings on property-tax bills would range from 30 percent to 45 percent.

The Taxation and Budget Reform Commission, which is appointed every 20 years by the governor, House speaker and Senate president, is charged with re-examining the tax code and can place proposed constitutional amendments before voters - this one, too, in November 2008.

Both merit further discussion and analysis.

And both come on the heels of an act of desperation by the Legislature, which spit out a last-minute plan for property-tax relief during the waning moments of yet another special session. Their proposed constitutional amendment, which comes up for a vote Jan. 29, would chop property taxes $12.4 billion over five years with school revenues taking a $2.8 billion hit.

The plan doubles the $25,000 homestead exemption, amounting to an average tax savings of $240 a year; allows homeowners to retain their accrued Save Our Homes benefits when they move; and sets a 10 percent annual cap on nonhomesteaded assessments. The doubling of the homestead exemption would not apply to schools.

This ballot issue has come under fire from a number of quarters, including those who question its fairness to nonhomesteaded property owners and those concerned with education. A St. Petersburg Times-Bay News 9 poll taken in November shows waning public support - at 53 percent among registered voters, well short of the 60 percent required for passage of a constitutional amendment. That number plummets to 47 percent when respondents learn about the plan's specific provisions.

This proposal is not measuring a passable pulse, yet Gov. Charlie Crist - who campaigned on Save Our Homes portability and doubling the homestead exemption - is plowing full steam ahead. He has appointed a top aide to run a statewide effort to boost support for the plan, and he is seeking donations from business trade groups in order to fund an advertising campaign.

This plan, though, only serves to compound inequities in the state's tax system, and we suggest Crist put his efforts elsewhere.

The 1.35 percent proposal, though, applies to all properties, including homes owned by snowbirds - making it more fair than January's amendment. But the plan faces a steep uphill climb in order to secure a spot on the November ballot, needing some 61,000 signatures on petitions by the end of December to trigger a Florida Supreme Court review of the ballot language. If that passes muster, roughly 550,000 signatures would have to be collected by the end of January.

The sales-tax measure - long a pet project by Bradenton businessman and former state Senate president John McKay - targets hundreds of materials and services currently untaxed. Many are justified and such "necessities of life" items as food, prescription drugs and health services would remain exempt. McKay is also not going after lawyers or advertising. The commission's tax code committee is looking at Internet sales, courier services, pro sports franchises, lawn care and swimming pool services, to name a few.
With support from two-thirds of the commission's 25 members, the amendment could be placed on the November ballots - though it, too, would require 60 percent passage.

With another $1 billion revenue shortfall predicted several weeks ago and continued economic grief ahead for the state, Florida will be challenged to come up with a more equitable tax system - whether that comes from a citizens initiative or a political effort. At least now there are more ideas on the table. We hope voters agree on one thing: January's ballot measure is not the answer.

So, what really happened in October?

Numbers rarely lie, although they can be deceiving. These, however, are simply depressing. I have broken the categories down into 3 groups:

1. Tampa Bay Area - comprises Pinellas, Pasco, and Hillsborough counties
2. Pinellas County
3. The Beaches (Clearwater Beach & Island Estates south to Indian Rocks Beach/Walsingham Rd)

MLS MONTHLY REPORT OCT ‘07


TAMPA BAY AREA Homes Condos Total Units

Total Units Available: 29,266 12,472 41,738

Total Units Pending: 1,750 481 2,231

Total Units Sold: 1,540 498 2,038

Absorption rate: 5.26% 3.99% 4.88%

Avg Days on Market 95 days 106 days 98 days

Months of Inventory 19.0 mons 25.0 mons 20.5 mons

Sold vs List Price % 93% 95% 94%



PINELLAS COUNTY Homes Condos Total Units

Total Units Available: 9,681 7,625 17,306

Total Units Pending: 514 281 870

Total Units Sold: 589 260 774

Absorption rate: 5.31% 3.41% 4.47%

Avg Days on Market 88 days 111 days 95 days

Months of Inventory 18.8 mons 29.3 mons 22.4 mons

Sold vs List Price % 92% 94% 93%


BEACHES (476-478, 374, 375) Homes Condos Total Units

Total Units Available: 281 1,127 1,408

Total Units Pending: 3 23 26

Total Units Sold: 7 31 38

Absorption rate: 2.49% 2.75% 2.70%

Avg Days on Market 40 days 163 days 140 days

Months of Inventory 40.1 mons 36.4 mons 37.1 mons

Sold vs List Price % 91% 93% 92%

With the downturn in residential Real Estate markets nationwide, it is commonplace to hear Realtors bemoaning the current state of affairs and yearning for the old days of multiple offers and busy Open Houses.

I have heard and read numerous comments about Realtors, our ethics (or lack thereof), and other less-than-desirable traits Realtors tend to embody (from other's perspectives).

Many of the comments tend to have the same message - Realtors don't work hard, don't know anything, and buyers and sellers can transact real estate by themselves, thus saving the commissions.

A recent experience would tend to refute the last statement - I'll let you decide.

My buyers viewed a home that was new to the market - 9 days NEW! FYI, that's another reason to work with a realtor - we know all of the new homes on the market. Just because you drive through a neighborhood on Monday doesn't mean there won't be 2 or 3 new houses for sale on Tuesday. But I digress...

We negotiated the purchase price to a figure that was acceptable to both parties and voila! we were under contract. Buyers excited, Sellers excited, Realtors excited...let's get these inspections done.

If you are asking "What inspections?" you DEFINITELY need a Realtor. My Buyers conducted a Home Inspection and a WDO inspection (a.k.a Termite) during which time the inspector found small interior and exterior cracks - further inspection by a contracting proofessional was recommended.

I think most would agree that realtors have access to GREAT AMOUNTS of information (or at least know how to get it quickly). We have a list in our office of homes in our county that have had foundation work completed, in the case of soil settlement issues. NOT ALL SOIL SETTLEMENT IS INDICATIVE OF A SINKHOLE.

Nevertheless, our "Under Contract" home was on the list!!! Egh. The long of it is the current owner (Sellers) purchased the home directly from the previous owners without the assistance of a Realtor - no inspections were complete, no defects were disclosed - the sellers even told them their A/C system was installed in '03 when the stickers say 1998.

Who knows how it's going to turn out...but my Buyers sure are happy we did our due diligence and discovered this issue prior to closing.

This is just one example of the value of a Real Estate agent...if you need more, I'd be happy to show some examples of how we earn our money and keep YOU out of hot water!

The latest version of property tax reform: How it worksTALLAHASSEE, Fla.

– Nov. 1, 2007 –

The Florida Legislature, caught in a game of “chicken,” approved a measure that will appear before voters on the Jan. 29, 2008, ballot. With time working against them, lawmakers agreed on a measure that scaled back earlier initiatives, and even current reforms pushed by the House.

What the current amendment includes:

Homestead exemption

The homestead exemption increases. The current $25,000 homestead exemption remains; but a second $25,000 exemption is added for home values between $50,000 and $75,000. The second $25,000 exemption does not apply to school taxes, however, which translates into a lower-than-expected savings of about $240 per homesteaded owner. The portion of a home valued between $25,000 and $50,000 will still be taxed at all levels. FAR fought to include this taxable portion in order to maintain fairness for smaller cities and counties with lower median home values.

Portability – Moving up

Property tax savings portability (money saved over time on property taxes because of yearly increase limits through Florida’s Save Our Homes amendment) applies to homesteaders (homeowners with a homestead exemption) moving anywhere within Florida. Up to $500,000 of accumulated savings, applied to taxable value, may be transferred when one home is sold and another is purchased, with the transfer applying to all taxes, including the school portion.

Homeowners have two years after they sell a home to buy a new one and transfer the savings. If buying a more expensive home, a homesteader calculates savings by subtracting the assessed value (taxable value) from the just value (market value). The amount (savings over time) is then subtracted from the just value on the new home purchased. In most cases, the $50,000 homestead exemption will also be subtracted.

Example: Susie currently owns a home and has lived there for a long time. The house’s just value is $500,000, but because of Save Our Homes, the assessed value is only $200,000. Susie buys a new house for $700,000. The following year, she’ll pay taxes on only $400,000, however, because she’s “porting” $300,000 in value to her new home. After factoring in the new homestead exemption of $50,000, her total assessed value would be $350,000.

If buying a less-expensive home, the calculation changes and is based on the percentage of tax savings rather than a dollar amount. If the assessed value on the original home was 50 percent of the just value, for example, the homesteader would transfer that percentage to the new home, or have a new assessed value that is 50 percent of the new home’s just value. The percentage system was created to keep homesteaders from effectively eliminating their property taxes altogether by moving from a high-cost area of Florida to a low-cost area – a change that could severely hurt smaller rural economies.

Example: Susie currently owns a home and has lived there for a long time. The house’s just value is $500,000, but because of Save Our Homes, the assessed value is only $200,000. Susie buys a new town home for $300,000. She’ll pay taxes only on $120,000 because when buying down in value, she’ll keep the same ratio (40 percent) of assessed value to just value that she enjoyed in her old home. After factoring in the new homestead exemption of $50,000, her total assessed value would be $70,000.

Also, portability is retroactive to Jan. 1, 2007 – so everyone who bought this year and moved from an established homestead will be able to “port” their savings for next year. Since yearly tax values are based on ownership as of Jan. 1 each year, portability would not affect this year’s tax bills, which most homeowners have already received; but the savings will be applicable to next year’s tax bill.

Non-homesteaded property tax capA win for FAR and an important piece of the amendment is a 10 percent annual assessment cap on non-homestead property. Similar to Save Our Homes, this cap limits the assessed increases of commercial, rental and second home property taxes to a maximum amount of 10 percent per year starting in 2009, protecting against high spikes in taxes from year-to-year. While property values will not rise 10 percent every year, FAR believes the cap offers some relief and protection to properties in high-value markets and waterfronts from unpredictable tax increases. The Constitution mandates a tax reassessment to just value upon transfer for non-homestead residential properties of nine units or less, but allows the Florida Legislature to determine how reassessment will occur for commercial and higher-unit residential properties. However, implementing legislation passed during the Special Session provides for reassessment of these properties upon a change in ownership or use.

Tangible personal property exemptionUnder the amendment, the Tangible Personal Property (TPP) exemption for businesses is $25,000. The Legislature estimates that this tax – paid to local governments on items such as shelving, desks, computers, and other office equipment – will exempt about 1 million of Florida’s 1.2 million businesses that currently pay it. The amendment also drops the requirement to file for the TPP tax.

Work not done

While the proposed amendment will save property owners as much as $12 billion (depending on the portability amount used), FAR will work for greater relief measures. The association also has serious concerns about a challenge to the constitutionality of portability.Earlier versions of property tax reform included provisions to help first-time homebuyers, a move missing in the current version. With that protection gone, FAR considers it possible that it will be challenged under the U.S. Constitution along with the entire Save Our Homes property tax system. If that happens, it could bring everyone back to the table yet again.

© 2007 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

D-I-S-G-U-S-T-I-N-G...

Yep, that's how I feel about the Lobbyist-coddling, myopic Florida Senate and President of the Senate, Ken Pruitt. The House took an aggressive approach to cutting OUR taxes, only to be rebuffed by the high-and-mighty Senate...Below is a snapshot of the Senate's proposal, courtesy of the Florida Senate:

The Florida Senate's new property tax cut proposal would:

1. Make Save Our Homes portable. Owners can use the benefit, up to $500,000, when they buy a new home. People who moved in 2007 could get the benefit retroactively.

2. Double the $25,000 homestead exemption.

3. Cap annual nonhomestead property assessments at 10 percent. It does not apply to school taxes.

4. Exempt $25,000 in tangible personal property.

The portability is good - please don't get me wrong. But I am not too excited about bringing my HUGE $4800 tax bill with me around Tampa Bay. Sure it helps the longtime homeowner, which is great. But what about the TENS OF THOUSANDS of Homeowners who bought during the run-up and lost that cap??? What about the THOUSANDS of investors who purchased beach property for the purposes of renting and watched their tax bills skyrocket, thus making the investment aspect moot. What about the THOUSANDS OF BUSINESSES that are failing under skyrocketing insurance and tax bills...

History has proven that stifling taxes will only serve to stifle that which is taxed - we can not afford to stifle an already-burdened real estate sector that has take a 1-2 punch from insurance woes and mortgage defaults.

As a full-time Realtor®, I find myself talking more and more to homeowners who purchased during the artificial “boom” years (2004 – 2006) and now need to sell their properties. The problem they are realizing is that their home or investment property is worth LESS than what it was purchased for – through NO fault of their own.

If you think you may be in this dilemma, every second counts - please pick up the phone and call me. You DO have a number of options available to you and I can assist you navigate them SUCCESSFULLY.

BUYING

This may also be the time you “step up” in the market by BUYING a larger home or investment property. Real estate is cyclical and has historically risen in value. NOW is the time to get that pool home with an extra Bedroom, 9th-hole golfer’s retreat, or EVEN THAT WATERFRONT HOME WITH A DOCK FOR YOUR BOAT!

Call or email me today and I will send you a list of VALUE-PRICED homes that are EXACTLY what you are looking for.

Contact me to discuss your options!

URGENT.....URGENT.....

http://www.cutpropertytaxesnow.com/ has launched a grass-roots campaign to add a new Constitutional Amendment to our ballot which will dramatically LOWER your property tax bill.

****This measure is designed to rein in excessive property taxes, not do away with them completely. It also leave the provisions of Save Our Homes intact****

read below for directions on how you can change the state of affairs in the State of Florida:

Cut Property Taxes Now
Forward this message far and wide for tax relief

A Simple and Effective Citizens’ Tax Relief Proposal for Florida: 1.25% property tax cap for everyone.
See Dr. McKalip and Tax Fighter David Simpson on ABC Action News (Tampa Bay) tonight at 5 or 6 pm about the initiative. (10/11/07)
Press conference at St. Pete City Hall Wed. 10/17 2pm , 175 5th St. N. St. Petersburg.

1. Go To http://www.cutpropertytaxesnow.com/ to download a petition to sign.
2. Fill in your address and it will help fill out the petition for you
3. Print and mail it in.
4. Donate money for a successful campaign with the “contribute” button at the site.
5. Go to http://www.cuttaxesnow.com/ to sign up for this email distribution list (if this was forwarded to you).


Today, Cut Property Taxes Now - a new and separate organization - announced its proposal to amend the state constitution in 11/08 to cut taxes for all Florida Property Owners. The Key points of the proposal would:

Tax all property at no more than 1.25% of its taxable value.
Keep the effect of the Save Our Homes cap – permanently.
Provide strong tax relief to homestead and non-homestead property owners.
Cut local government property tax revenue by about 25% across the state.
Takes effect in January 2009.

To put it more simply, here are the taxes that would be paid on all property based on its taxable value (the value on your Trim notice after Save Our Homes and exemptions). This applies to homesteaders and non-homesteaders:

Taxable Value Property Tax
$100,000 $1,250
$200,000 $2,500
$300,000 $3,750
$500,000 $6,250
$750,000 $9,375
$1,000,000 $12,500

Last year, local Governments in Florida collected a record $30.4 billion in property taxes, nearly twice what was collected in 2000. The “One and a Quarter” Solution would have allowed $22.4 Billion, cutting local tax collections an average of about 25% (a quarter) around the state. The money is being wasted on corporate welfare, failed social welfare, government mismanagement and waste and excessive benefits packages for government workers.

Cut Property Taxes Now is headed by Lee Sullivan, of Bay Taxpayer Alliance in the Panhandle, David McKalip, M.D., of Cut Taxes Now in Tampa Bay and Ira Paul, of Independent Voices for Better Education in Miami-Dade.

Are you fed up with the overspending at your local governments? Are you disgusted that the politicians can’t find a way to cut taxes for all those who are actually paying the high taxes? Are you angry that tax collections have doubled since 2000, people are leaving the state, the Florida economy is spiraling downward and businesses can’t grow or must close?

The time is now. It is up to us. Let’s take action to bring government back down to size and achieve the tax relief our politicians will never give us.

Go to http://www.cutpropertytaxesnow.com/ and download the petition. Sign it and mail it in today.

Paid Political Advertisement Sponsored and Paid for In Kind by David McKalip, M.D., 1201 5th Ave. N. #210, St. Petersburg, FL 33705.

So you've been reading the papers, listening to real estate studies, and heeding the market...some call it a "blood bath", some call it a "blood-letting", while others call it a "blood donation" as sellers are giving back the gains they have seen for the past 3 years.

Whatever you call it, it's GREAT NEWS for Buyers! It has been a long, long time since buyers have had so much inventory at continuously shrinking prices. So what have you been waiting for?

Ok, so you are ready to buy...how are you going to do your research? Let's take a local buyer and some steps they can take to gain knowledge of a particular area:

1. Call a Realtor - a realtor will take your requirements, such as size, amenities, place of employment, schools, etc., and find some areas that would best suit you.
2. Drive - take a weekend and drive to the areas that may interest you. Drive through the neighborhoods that you like and take notes of the ones you DEFINITELY do not want to live in.
3. Wikipedia.com - a great way to get snapshot views on the history, make-up, and details for cities in and around your search area.
4. Web resources - websites such as Zillow.com and Trulia.com can give you recent comparable sales, homes for sale, and a visual pictures of values in areas of interest.
5. Most county agencies have gone to a GIS method of mapping their area. GIS stands for Geographic Information Systems and maps such items (based on GPS measurements) as zoning, lot lines, flood plain, road capacity, schools, and much more. Pinellas County offers the ability to overlap an aerial image on top, as well.
6. Call your realtor for showings! The only way to truly dtermine value (as each person has a different opinion of value) is to get INTO each home that fits your criteria. You will quickly see one homes value as compared to another and another...
7. Pull the Trigger! Make that offer and start your move.

Obviously, house-hunting takes time and effort and an open mind - keep at it, do your due-diligence, and you will be an EDUCATED buyer.

Cheers!

The real estate onslaught continues...

September proved a sluggish month not only temperature-wise, but also with home sales. News outlets around the country reported late last week that NEW home sales fell to a 7 YEAR LOW, while the sales of EXISING homes has fallen to a 5 year low...a quick check of the MLS shows Pinellas County saw only 636 home sales close in the month of September. 636 homes would be a lot if we didn't have 17,256 homes available.

Yep, that's hardly a 4% absorption rate.

September is normally a slower month anyway - what remains to be seen is how we finish the year. The tax reform bill approved by the Legislature has been defeated in a court of law for being to "vague", which will most likely keep it off the January ballot. Not the best of news for our market in Florida.

On the bright side, tropically-induced weather has been limited and will most likely NOT impact our communities.

Has the Federal Reserve's half-percentage point cut (to 4.75 percent) helped? Not really - it was intended for the credit market more than anyone else. It was the Fed's first cut in four years, though.

Sellers, I know you hate to hear it but if you want/need to sell, get those prices down. It doesn't matter what you could have made last year or the year before that. Everyday your home sits on the market is a day you have lost value.

Period.

Buyers, there are deals to be had! If you want to see what's out there, drop me an email or a call to discuss.

FYI, next week we will touch on the "R" word that many economists, market gurus, and media outlets are starting to use more frequently...

Ask and ye shall receive:

Federal Reserve Bank lowers interest rate by half a percentage point.

SELLERS - IT'S NOT GETTING ANY BETTER!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20829849/

Updated: 1 hour, 30 minutes ago

LOS ANGELES - The number of foreclosure filings reported in the U.S. last month more than doubled versus August 2006 and jumped 36 percent from July, a trend that signals many homeowners are increasingly unable to make timely payments on their mortgages or sell their homes amid a national housing slump.

A total of 243,947 foreclosure filings were reported in August, up 115 percent from 113,300 in the same month a year ago, Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac Inc. said Tuesday.

It may open the door for the Fed to be proactive and lower the FEDERAL FUNDS RATE a 1/4 or 1/2 point - that has not been done in 4 years! Will it help the average homeowner in the throes of foreclosure? Probably not. It will merely serve to increase demand for money, which will trickle down to somewhat lower interest rates.

The IRS is now getting involved...they have started a new section for homeowners losing their homes through foreclosure:

http://www.irs.gov/newsroom/article/0,,id=174022,00.html

Sellers, it's not pretty out there - you ARE COMPETING with thousands of other sellers, relocation companies, bank-owned properties, pre-foreclosures, and in-foreclosure properties. Make no mistake - values will continue to decline for the forseeable future as this "mess" continues to unfold.

If you think you are immune, think again. Some economists and real estate professionals are saying we have only seen the beginning on of the foreclosure fallout - the "tsunami" has yet to hit!

Best of luck to all...

JUST LISTED - 19 acre Horse Ranch in beautiful Odessa!

Asking $1.999M

This rare equine oasis is TURN-KEY, offering 22 stalls, a large 4/3 Ranch home, additional 3/3 apartment, and MUCH MORE!

Currently FULLY BOARDED, this property generates appr. $10,000 PER MONTH is boarding income.

For more information, please email me for our full color, 11 page brochure detailing the amenities this rare property offers horse lovers.

To see the property, visit www.NorthCornerRanch.com

Just when I thought I had seen it all...

With the advent of the Internet, marketing a home for sale has, to some, become a no-brainer. A flowery description, pictures, and a pri ce are all you need, right? Wrong.

A little while ago, I stopped calling myself a Sale Associate and started using the title "Real Estate Marketing Consultant". You might say "Oh, everyone want a title" but when you look at the actual meaning, the product I provide will make the difference between a home sale and a stale listing, a strong offer or a lowball. I earn my money not only by shuffling paperwork, but by how I market your home, where I market your home, and who sees your home. Simply put, I'm your PUBLICIST!#:

What makes my marketing so different from the 8600 other realtors in my county? I look at your home from the same context a buyer would - is it pretty? Is it clean? Do the pictures tell the story? Heck, does the main picture cause me to click to see more shots of the home

Here's a great example of a contrasting Main Home photos:

I was called to a listing appointment for a home that had been on the market for the course of 2 years...this was the picture of the home on the MLS before I took the listing...

Here's the picture AFTER I took the listing:

I employed an aerial photgrapher because I could not capture the unique design on the home from the ground. i also wanted to illustrate just how close to the water this home really is - and I did it without words...

It's equally as important to know WHERE your home is being marketed. I like to target market. Let's take my $3M Beach home on the Gulf of mexico in Clearwater Beach. The MLS is great, but maybe this property needs to be market INTERNATONALLY. I know how to do it, what it costs, and have access to international advertising that the average homeowner doesn't. Sorry, it's a trade secret until you list with me!

Who sees your home is very important as well. I'm not going to market my new 19 acre Horse Farm listing to beach buyers. I am going to hit websites and publications catering to horse lovers, LLAMA LOVERS (because they need farms, too) and other equine-oriented venues.

In this market environment, you need a Real Estate Marketing Consultant who will show your property in the VERY BEST LIGHT...period

So what's this "Mortgage Mess" all about?

Simply put, the lax underwriting, increasing foreclosures, and fraudulent lending practices have made mortgage INVESTORS leary of buying blocks of mortgages. Without that influx of pure cash, the lenders cannot continue to lend - hence Countrywide's recent access of it's 11.5 BILLION line of credit.

Hard hit are "Jumbo" mortgage rates - any mortgage over $417,000, due to the uncertainty of investors with regard to the secondary market.

SELLERS TAKE NOTE: If you have the resources available and are in a good financial position, consider offering qualified buyers a PMM, or Purchase Money Mortgage. With rates from 6% - 9+%, offering a 1, 2, or 3 year balloon mortgage at 5.87% would be a dream for any buyer currently in the market and looking to pull the trigger on a higher dollar property.

Obviously, it's a little more complicated than that - a seller should only consider making the loan with a substantial down payment by the buyer - IMO, no less than 15%. Besides, the buyer's credit should be STELLAR with proof of employment and income verification.

What we have to do is take lemons and make lemonade - thinking outside the box is the American way!

Any questions, contact me...

Florida’s housing market for 2Q 2007: Sales activity remains soft

Related story: NAR: Second-quarter homes prices improving but sales down in most states

ORLANDO, Fla. – Aug. 15, 2007 – In second quarter 2007, Florida's housing sector in many markets continued to report higher inventory levels of homes for sale, median prices edging down and sales activity reflecting a buyer’s market.

Statewide, sales of single-family existing homes totaled 37,709 during the three-month period, a decrease of 30 percent compared to 53,723 homes sold during the same time a year earlier, according to the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR). The statewide existing-home median sales price was $239,200 in the second quarter; a year ago, it was $250,400 for a decrease of 4 percent. In 2002, the second-quarter statewide median sales price was $137,400, which reflects an increase of about 74.1 percent over the five-year period. The median is a typical market price where half the homes sold for more, half for less.

To gain insight into current trends in Florida’s real estate industry, the University of Florida’s Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies conducts a quarterly survey of industry executives, market research economists, real estate scholars and other experts. When assessing the state’s single-family markets, those polled in the second quarter 2007 survey viewed absorption activity as a sign the markets are continuing to move toward stability, said Dr. Wayne Archer, the center’s director. While acknowledging the potential impact of the subprime mortgage “meltdown” on Florida’s housing sector, along with the issues of property taxes and high insurance rates, Archer said, “Those of us who have watched markets for a long time realize the picture can change rather dramatically in a short period of time if something allows people to sell their house more quickly, such as a change in the property tax situation or a sudden improvement in the economy.”

Continuing low mortgage rates remain another positive influence on the housing market. According to Freddie Mac, the national commitment rate for a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.37 percent in second quarter 2007; one year earlier, it averaged 6.60 percent.The latest industry outlook from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) predicts that existing-home sales will continue to be stable over the next few months. Long-term fundamentals of the housing market remain favorable, said NAR Senior Economist Lawrence Yun, who expects a modest upturn for existing-home sales toward the end of the year.

“With the population growing, the demand for homes isn’t going away – it’s just being delayed,” Yun said. “More buyers, and cutbacks in new construction, will eventually draw down the inventory levels and support future price appreciation.”

Looking to Florida's existing condominium market, sales of existing condos also decreased during the quarter, with a total of 12,415 condos sold statewide compared to 16,566 in second quarter 2006 for a 25 percent decline, according to FAR. The statewide median sales price for condos remained relatively stable at $208,400 for the three-month period; a year ago, it was $211,200 for a 1 percent decline.Among the state’s larger markets, the Sarasota-Bradenton metropolitan statistical area (MSA) reported 2,365 existing homes sold for the quarter, a 4 percent increase compared to the 2,281 homes sold a year earlier. The market’s existing-home median sales price was $294,100; a year earlier, it was $318,500 for a decrease of 8 percent. A total of 948 existing condos sold in the market over the three-month period, up 2 percent from second quarter 2006, while the existing-condo median price decreased 9 percent to $246,900.

The Tallahassee MSA, one of the smaller markets in the state, reported that 1,178 homes changed hands in the second quarter, down 20 percent compared to 1,471 homes sold a year earlier. Over the same period, the market’s existing-home median home price rose 4 percent to $181,000; a year earlier, it was $174,800. A total of 102 existing condos sold in the Tallahassee area during the second quarter, a decrease of 30 percent from the previous year, while the existing-condo median price rose 4 percent to $153,600.

© 2007 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

DOUBLE CORNER LOT FOR SALE - NEW LISTING IN ST. PETERSBURG

1501 41st Ave N

DOUBLE CORNER LOT! DOUBLE CORNER LOT! 2 BR, 1 BA home on a double corner lot! Newly refinished - hardwood floors in both BRs, neutral paint and tile floors throughout. Sunroom off of the kitchen can be used as 3rd BR with French doors. 1 Car garage, NEW roof in 2002, newer rebuilt air handler/compressor. Adorable bungalow style with curved archways. Super-clean house in terrific St. Pete neighborhood! One street away from Historic Allendale Terrace. Close to highway (I-275), many schools and downtown St. Petersburg.

$169,900 - call for more info, details, and pics

So, what kind of market are we in?

No matter what the papers say, no matter what Realtors, say, no matter what your uncle's brother's cousin (twice-removed) says...we are still in a DEPRECIATING MARKET.

How can I say that you ask...let's look at the raw numbers from Pinellas County Homes & Condos from May '06 - June '07:

The easiest characteristic of a DECLINING VALUE MARKET is the inventory vs. absorption (solds). Notice the steadily increasing inventory of properties for sale - then contrast it tour the declining (or flatlining) number of SOLD properties.

So what IS happening to prices? Good question - let's take a look:

Haven't you heard prices are falling? Apparently not, looking at this cumulative graph over the past year. Look at the red line for 04/06 - Average price of $272,000. Go to the far right and look at 06/07 - $272,000. Hmmm...that tells me that prices are holding SOMEWHAT STEADY if you take a macro viewpoint. Someneighborhoods have seen 20% - 30% decreases.

Notice the declining GREEN line...those are asking prices. They have steadily fallen as Sellers realize they are competing against each other for the savvy buyers. Average ASKING prices have fallen appr. 18% in Pinellas County - NOTE I said ASKING PRICES, not necessarily sales prices.

So what's going to happen - honestly, that's anyone's guess. However, if you look at the numbers of For Sales, Pendings, and Solds (Graph #1) over the last 3-5 months, you will notice they do not change much month over month - that indicates stabilization in our market place.

Buyers, it's probably about hit bottom - maybe another 5%, which you can easily capture with good negotiating. Sellers, if you get an offer 5%-7% b elow your already "low" asking price, don't be insulted - it's simply the market.

Good luck!

ATTENTION SELLERS:

http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/n2-073007.cfm

Study: Foreclosures impact entire neighborhoodsMIAMI

– July 30, 2007 –

Mounting mortgage defaults across South Florida threaten to hurt more than just those homeowners who lose their properties to lenders.

Experts say foreclosures could drag down already sluggish housing prices throughout entire neighborhoods.

“Homeowners that are being foreclosed upon aren’t spending their Saturday afternoons mowing the yard,” said Greg McBride, a senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com in North Palm Beach. “So those people who are cutting the grass, trimming the shrubs and fixing the gutters will suffer.”

In the Tree Tops development in Wellington, where residents tend to their lots with care, one property near the entrance is in foreclosure and has been on the market for months. The vacant house has a rickety wooden fence, missing roof tiles and, until recently, a front yard full of weeds. A buyer just walked away from a $190,000 contract on the home, located about three miles west of the Mall at Wellington Green where comparable homes go for as much has $240,000.

As a result, neighbors trying to sell their wood-frame homes built in the early 1980s could have a hard time getting their asking prices, said Deanne Lee, 43, a real estate agent who lives one street from the house in foreclosure.

“It’s a scary thought,” Lee said. “I see this as just the beginning.”

In a national study published last year, two housing analysts found that for every foreclosure within one-eighth of a mile of a single-family home, property values decline by about 1 percent, and even more in dense developments. The study by Geoff Smith and Dan Immergluck is thought to be the only comprehensive look at the effect of foreclosures on property values, and is based on depressed values in Chicago in 1997 and 1998. Based on their study, the value of a typical Palm Beach County home near one property in foreclosure could drop at least $3,779. The county’s median-priced existing home in June was $377,900, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.

“One foreclosure may have a modest effect on nearby property values, but with four or five foreclosures, you’ll see a significant effect,” said Smith, director of the Woodstock Institute, a nonprofit housing group in Chicago. “You see neighborhoods start to decline.”

Smith recommends that neighbors of foreclosed homes postpone selling their own properties until the housing market improves. “But people often times don’t have that option,” he said.The numbers of homeowners defaulting on their mortgages and facing foreclosure are rising steadily across South Florida this year, according to Realestat.com, a Plantation-based company that compiles local housing statistics.

Analysts mostly blame the trouble on unconventional home loans made to risky borrowers hoping to get into houses and condominiums that shot up in value during the housing boom from 2000 to 2005.

Perfect foreclosure storm

The umber of Palm Beach County homeowners behind on their mortgage payments topped 1,000 in June, almost a fourfold increase from 259 a year ago. Actual foreclosures were flat last month. The worst is yet to come, however. Experts say foreclosure filings and late-payment notices from lenders are expected to peak this fall, leaving lenders with a glut of properties to sell by next summer.In Floral Park, a middle-class development of 40-year-old homes in suburban Lake Worth, a foreclosed house went on the market down the street from Joe Rodriguez. It sold recently for just more than $263,000.

As a result, Rodriguez is worried that he could have a hard time getting his $369,900 asking price, even though his four-bedroom corner property is bigger and includes a pool table as an incentive.

“It’s a bad sign,” Rodriguez said of foreclosures. “If the banks turn around and sell them for less, sure, it’s going to hurt [other sellers nearby.]”

Homeowners with late house payments usually are at least three months behind and have been notified that their lenders intend to foreclose. In many cases, people who secured adjustable-rate loans found they couldn’t afford the monthly payments once interest rates rose.During the housing frenzy, some of those people avoided foreclosure simply by selling the homes or refinancing. But that wasn’t as easy to do when the market slumped last year. With fewer buyers and thousands of properties for sale, cash-strapped homeowners can’t count on fast deals to bail them out of trouble.

What’s more, refinancing isn’t as easy now because home values are flat or dropping and lenders are tightening credit standards as borrowers default on home loans.Neighborhoods that stand to get hurt the most from the foreclosure crunch are newer ones with a large number of sales made near the peak of the housing boom in 2005, said Alan Hunter, a senior market analyst with Metrostudy, a West Palm Beach consulting firm.

Because lenders don’t want to be in the real estate business, they’ll likely sell those properties quickly and at a loss that will reduce home values.

“They’ll be bought by investors who will try to rent them out at a profit,” Hunter said.It’s becoming more difficult to determine whether price declines are the result of nearby foreclosures or the general decline in the housing market, real estate agents say. Regardless, the downward pressure on prices actually will be good in the long run for overpriced markets, including South Florida, said Mark Vitner, senior economist for Wachovia Securities.“It’s going to help speed up the adjustment process,” Vitner said. “More homes will get into the hands of more willing sellers – the banks or whomever. It’s a necessary thing.”

But that’s not what sellers want to hear. Re/Max agent Mark Plaxen is marketing a two-bedroom townhouse off Village Boulevard in West Palm Beach. Four months ago, the seller was asking $199,000 but has since reduced the price five times. This month it was listed at $174,900.

Plaxen just found out about another listing in the same development: a townhouse in foreclosure.“I’ll probably have to call up my seller and say, ‘It’s time to lower the price again.’”

Copyright © 2007 South Florida Sun-Sentinel, Paul Owers. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.

http://realestate.msn.com/Buying/Article_Forbes.aspx?cp-documentid=5008065&GT1=10130

Where will real estate bounce back fastest?

Prices have hit bottom in some cities and are heading back up, but recovery rates vary. Here are the places with the best prospects.

By Matt Woolsey, Forbes.com

When it comes to real estate, the questions on everyone's lips are: How low is low, and when's the perfect time to buy back in?

That moment has passed in Seattle and in Charlotte, N.C. Both metro areas hit bottom in the first quarter of 2006 and have since posted price gains of 12.3% and 6.3%, respectively, according to National Association of Realtors (NAR) data.

Ripe for investment? Philadelphia and New Orleans. Based on housing inventory and local economic conditions, both should hit price troughs by year's end and bounce back with moderate gains of around 4% in 2008.

In markets expected to recover more slowly, such as Boston and Denver, low buyer confidence coupled with a surplus of housing stock has lengthened the slump. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun points out that buyers are looking for clear signs of a market bottom and are content to wait on the sidelines until then.

It's easy to see why. Most of the country's real-estate markets are feeling the effects of overproduction. A strong market hovers near a 1.5% vacancy rate, but the national average currently stands at 2.8%, and in cities such as Miami, Atlanta and Denver, figures hang around 3.5%. In addition, every nugget of good news (like the May Commerce Department report that said new-home sales are at a 14-year high) comes with bad news (median price growth is at a 10-year low).

So which other metro area markets stand the best chance of recovery, and when will that upturn occur?

Behind the numbers

Market corrections follow three basic recovery patterns: a V-shaped recovery where a market experiences a sharp, fast decline but comes out strong once it hits bottom; a U-shaped recovery, where prices decline gradually and recover slowly; and an L-shaped pattern, a hard, fast fall with a paltry price bounce-back after the market trough.

The differences between a V-shaped market and a U-shaped one have to do with barriers to growth. High vacancy rates and high investor share can hurt a market, but if the local economy remains strong and housing stock affordable, it's only a matter of how long it takes to absorb the excess inventory.

Tampa, Fla., is a perfect candidate for a V-shaped recovery, according to research from Moody's Economy.com, an economic analysis, forecasting and credit risk firm in West Chester, Pa. The local economy remains strong, and subprime lending is relatively low. Tampa's problem? A high investor share that led to high vacancy rates. When the market turned sour in 2005, more than 25% of Tampa homes were owned as investment properties. Investors are quicker to flee during a downturn, thus creating a glut of available housing stock. In Tampa's case, vacancy rates now stand at 3.5%.

"As investors exit, the market revives," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, as fewer speculative buyers result in a more stable market. "Tampa's a pretty affordable market, and first-time buyers can come in once prices fall."

Based on Moody's Economy projections, Tampa should burn off its excess inventory and hit a price trough in the first quarter of 2008, at which point prices are expected to increase by 10.6% the following year.

These projections take into account housing affordability, vacancy rates, the strength of the local economy and job market, investor share in 2005 and the share of subprime mortgages. Data are from Moody's, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve.

Predicting the bottom of any asset market, especially real estate, is a difficult thing. While these projections are based on sound data and advanced modeling by Moody's, no one can predict futures markets with absolute certainty.

Other bounces

Like Tampa, Phoenix is afflicted by high investor share (26.1%), and it has a vacancy rate of more than 3%. Good affordability rates and a surging job market suggest that once Phoenix bottoms out, price growth will be strong. Moody's projection model has Phoenix reaching its price trough in the fourth quarter of 2008 and then growing by 7.7% the following year.
Slower recovery rates are expected in markets such as Minneapolis and Boston, where a slumping local economy, slow job growth and negative migration numbers hamper long-term prospects. Along with other U-shaped markets, like Sacramento, that have double-digit subprime lending share, Zandi says it's going to be harder for these markets to get going again.
That doesn't necessarily mean V-shaped markets are in the clear. The labor markets in cities such as Las Vegas, Phoenix and San Diego, whose future economic success will be critical to recovery, are heavily in housing-related industries, according to Moody's. So long as those economies can weather their respective corrections, they should be all right.

"These markets are going to experience more substantial declines in the coming year," says Zandi. "Gauging the bottom is a very intrepid affair, and the job market is very important to recovery."

Real-estate markets with the best prospects for recovery


Rank
Market
Expected market bottom
Est. price appreciation after bottom
1
Tampa, Fla.
Q1 2008
10.60%
2
Phoenix
Q4 2008
7.70%
3
Las Vegas
Q2 2009
7.20%
4
San Diego
Q2 2008
5.30%
5
New Orleans
Q3 2007
4.30%

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FYI: prices for most properties have decreased to 2005 or 2004 levels - now is a terrific time to buy and lock in savings. If you are looking for something specific, please call or email me to get started - it's so easy and you can thank me later!

SELLERS:

With interest rates at a 10-month high, consider offering buyers an incentive - buy down their mortgage rate and they'll be happy as a clam! If you're using a realtor, ask them for to contact a trusted mortgage lender and get a quote for several different buydown options. If your braving this depreciatin market alone, then contact a trusted mortgage lender (if you have one) and ask for buydown quotes. Remember, realtors have tried-and-true referral lists for just these types of things...

It's a terrific way to get an edge in a market saturated with competition. However, it will not substitute for ENERGY-PRICING, i.e. pricing your home to sell and not just being an "MLS super-star".

best of luck...Rich C

Oh wow, things have been cooking in my neck of the woods. I mentioned in my last post that I have just joined Coldwell Banker Residential RE in Clearwater. My client response has been overwhelmingly positive and encouraging. So much so that every one of my sellers have decided to allow Coldwell Banker to continue marketing their homes.

At the risk of sounding like a Coldwell Banker "mark", they do have so much to offer that the learning curve is DAUNTING - but I've jumped right in and I'm having a blast.

Here's what's new:

NEW LISTINGS NEW LISTINGS NEW LISTINGS

820 Eldorado Avenue on Clearwater's MOST FAMOUS BEACH...Gulf-front 4/3, 3190 sf, multiple underbuilding parking. Phenomenally re-designed: Italian Cucini kitchen, Spa-like Master Bath, rebuilt Gulf-front lanai...so much more! $2,999,000...the LOWEST price per sf on the Gulf in Clw Beach

7430 Sunshine Skyway Lane S #902 at the Southern tip of St. Petersburg...TOP FLOOR 2/2, 1100 sf, dramatic water views...wow ....$289,000

Prices are dropping and Buyers abound (really) - BUT they are savvy and will NOT pay more than a home is worth - in fact, buyers are making under-value offers in hopes of not losing value once they move in. In our previously appreciating market, even if a home were priced too high, eventually the price point would rise high enough to meet that home's asking price - the exact opposite is now occurring. The price point continues to erode, yet many seller's pries are still above the market level. In this instance, the gap continually widens every day the market continues its descent to normal valuations.

What does this mean for you??? Sellers, get your stuff together and get those prices DOWN.

Unless you want to hold onto the property for an untold number of years to come, minimize those losses and price the property competitively - in many cases, that means being THE LEAST EXPENSIVE home on the block.

It's called "ENERGY-PRICING" and it creates a perceived sense of value for buyers...

Happy hunting!
Rich