November was bleak, as expected. Overall home & condo sales rates were about a point lower than October’s sales rates. Pending home sales ticked up (as reported by several media outlets) but many of those don’t make it to closing the next month (or at all!). Pricing is still homeseller’s strongest sales tactic – distressed properties in Tampa Bay sold at an AVERAGE PRICE 23% LOWER than non-distressed properties, which is very stiff competition.

Below is a 5 year lookback at our inventory in Tampa Bay – November’s inventory dipped below 38,000 units for sale for the 1st time in AT LEAST 2 YEARS! Our current rate of supply decay from Nov ‘07 to Nov ’08 is 10%...at current rates, barring any major increase in buyers or inventory, it would take 10 YEARS to get back to healthy, sustainable levels, i.e. 12,000 – 14,000 units! I think the turnaround will be quicker, but no sooner than 2010 until we see that “healthier” market.

Expect December to be as slow as November. I am experiencing more showing calls and also taking clients out more often. I also expect a mental shift in homebuyers in the 1st quarter of 2009 as 1) confidence in a new administration 2) low mtg rates 3) low prices and 4) increased job stability encourage homeowners to explore our market.


TAMPA BAY AREA (tri-county) Homes Condos Total Units

Total Units Available: 26,040 11,446 37,486

Total Units Pending: 1,789 523 2,312

Total Units Sold: 1,406 394 1,800

Absorption rate: 5.40% 3.44% 4.80%

Avg Days on Market 97 days 106 days 99 days

Months of Inventory 18.5 mons 29.1 mons 20.8 mons

Sold vs List Price % 93% 92% 93%

Sold vs Original List Price % 83% 83% 83%


PINELLAS COUNTY Homes Condos Total Units

Total Units Available: 9,089 6,570 15,659

Total Units Pending: 576 270 846

Total Units Sold: 458 204 662

Absorption rate: 5.04% 3.11 % 4.23%

Avg Days on Market 96 days 120 days 103 days

Months of Inventory 19.8 mons 32.2 mons 23.7 mons

Sold vs List Price % 92% 91% 92%

Sold vs Original List Price % 84% 82% 83%


N. BEACHES (476-478, 370-375) Homes Condos Total Units

Total Units Available: 707 1800 2,507

Total Units Pending: 29 72 101

Total Units Sold: 27 48 75

Absorption rate: 3.82% 2.67% 2.99%

Avg Days on Market 91 days 120 days 110 days

Months of Inventory 26.2 mons 37.5 mons 33.4 mons

Sold vs List Price % 92% 90% 91%

Sold vs Original List Price % 83% 82% 83%