I get questioned all the time As for our local real estate market, all the economists are now pushing the expected recovery from late '08 to '09...something I can easily do.

The rates are slowly creeping up (I have heard it will be around 7% start of '09 due to inflationary pressures). Our problem is sky-high SUPPLY and constant low demand. Some economists have predicted that demand will increase when the supply of available NEW homes diminshes...

I have read recently that NEW HOME STARTS are at a 16-18 year LOW, which leads me to believe we are exhausting (slowly) the supply of new homes.

Right now appr 6.2% of available homes in the Tampa Bay area are selling each month. It would take appr 16 - 17 months to deplete the inventory (given no more homes go up for sale). A traditionally healthy market will have a 3 - 6 month supply of homes, so you can see how far we have to go.

Honestly, with the economy experiencing recessionary effects, our high inventory, and the vast number of current and future foreclosures, I don't expect a "bottom" (whatever that may be)until late 2009 and a stabilization in 2010.

That said, there are many GREAT deals...I have noticed the bank-owned properties are carrying the most equity fro new buyers at closing.

Below is a 4 yr "look-back" home supply graph of the tri-county Tampa Bay area...remember, stay educated and these market surprises will become less "surprise" and more "expected".